April 2012: Sedona Real Estate Update.

A sea-change is a gentle, but extreme transformation, sometimes for the better. That is a good outline of what is happening in the Sedona Real Estate market. As the national economy has slowly found its footing, consumer confidence has returned. So have house purchasers with replenished faith in the long-term price of property here and a sense that now is the time to make the leap before costs start spiking.

It has been a very long time coming. From 2008, in the depths of the Great Recession, when home sales sank to new lows and inventory rose to new highs, buyer demand has continuously drifted to back the surface, while the mountain of houses on sale has inexorably eroded. Both have returned to 2006 levels, the high water mark of the estate boom re costs and the start of the market slide. This makes a superb benchmark for judging the recovery.

In the 1st Quarter of 2006, while the market was still relatively robust, one hundred and twelve single family houses were sold at a average cost of $551,250.00. Prices kept on rising to well over $600,000 later in the year and more buyers were priced-out. By the end of the year sales had dropped 30% from 2005 levels.

The 1st Quarter of 2008 saw home sales dropping to 43, however selling costs were still high — $509,500. Active lists expanded to 486 and pending sales dropped to 39. And, that was all before the Wall St. and Credit Industry meltdowns. It was not until late 2008 that we started seeing repossessions show up in sufficient enough numbers to smash prices. For the subsequent three years, median selling costs bounced around in the three-hundred thousand buck range.

The upside of those persistent cheap prices nonetheless, was that they attracted bargain hunting customers back into the market. Sales picked up momentum during 2009 that carried over into 2010. That was a breakthrough year that saw home sales exceeding those of 2006. 2011 had its ups and down, but its sales statistics also at last trumped 2006.

First Quarter 2012 costs stayed stubbornly low, with the median dipping below $340,000. Other signals however, are prodding the Law of Supply and Demand into action. Home sales for quarter one of 2012 hit 102 mark (ten less than 2006) and Pending Sales hovered around 90! Compare that with 87 at the end of the first Quarter of 2006. Or, 2011′s 68. Or, 2008′s 39. Those pending sales have gnawed up the inventory. At the end of March we were down to an amazingly low 280 houses on the market. Simultaneously in 2006 there were 289. Hence demand is up and supply is down… and each significantly.

Unless we see a batch of new repossessions come on the market, REOs are losing their abilities to suppress costs in general. There were only seven on the market at the end of March… 1/4 of the numbers weve seen during the past three years. In addition, frankly, those are the dregs. Nor, have we seen the guaranteed inundation of short-sales. Actually, only 4 have sold during the past a quarter and far fewer are on the market than last year.

It’s been those troubled sales and listings that have kept the Law of Supply and Demand from operating efficiently since late 2008. With that dam breaking down, high tides will elevate all crafts.

Therefore, it is no longer a question of if costs will start rising, but when? My take is that it’ll be much earlier than the authorities are expecting for Real Estate Sedona, Arizona.